Brizzi Leads By Eight in Second WISH Poll

Video - WMV

The second WISH-TV/Research 2000 poll (crosstabs) surveyed 400 LVs, MoE +/- 5%. Brizzi is leading Kennedy 50-42%, 8% undecided. In the 7th district, Julia Carson is leading Eric Dickerson 48-43%, with 9% undecided. Results from the 8th and 9th CDs will be coming this week....

IndyStar Endorses Brizzi

They say that the "incumbent has the record and experience needed to serve second term as Marion County prosecutor."

Democratic challenger Melina Kennedy, a former deputy mayor, is a sharp, thoughtful first-time candidate who has gained confidence as she's grown more comfortable with campaigning. Kennedy has pushed incumbent Carl Brizzi with her ideas and with critiques of his performance. Voters should be appreciative of that effort because it underscores what elections are designed to do -- give the public solid choices and push incumbents to address weaknesses.

Brizzi, however, remains the better choice to lead the Prosecutor's Office for the next four years.

The Republican incumbent has built a strong record in his first term, helping drive creation of the Criminal Justice Planning Council, working across party lines to confront issues such as jail overcrowding, and adapting methods to tackle emerging threats such as gang violence and methamphetamine use.

Kennedy has sharply criticized the incumbent's record, but an Indianapolis Star analysis of cases during Brizzi's first term found that his felony conviction rate matches the national average, as determined by a U.S. Department of Justice study.
...
Brizzi does need to address a couple of weaknesses in a second term. It may be impossible to separate entirely politics from the prosecutor's office, but Brizzi at times seems too eager to score political points against his adversaries.

He also is too quick to thrust himself into the center of media attention. He recently, for example, showed up, reporters in tow, to deliver a search warrant to the Marion County Coroner's Office. He also decided this year to prosecute his first death penalty case, the high-profile Hamilton Street murders.

Brizzi Has 3-1 CoH Advantage, Has Raised Twice as Much

Brizzi continues to far outraise Kennedy, according to recent finance reports. He has $600,000 CoH; Kennedy has about $204,000. The Republican incumbent's raised $2.4 million this cycle, compared to Kennedy's $1.1 million.

Kennedy Losing Badly

Carl Brizzi is pulling away from Melina Kennedy, according to a new WTHR/Selzer & Co. poll of 600 LVs. Brizzi is leading Kennedy 51-35%, with a MoE of +/- 5%.

Interstingly, the poll also shows 7th CD challenger Eric Dickerson neck-and-neck with Julia Carson, 45-42%. Obvious bad news for Kennedy: 7% of Carson's supporters are falling off. But if the Carson team legitimately believes the race is competitive, the data might help gin up a famous GOTV machine that could recoup that 7% for the down-ballot Democrat... But is anyone really surprised by the numbers? Kennedy's television presence has been miserable, and the ads have been an insult to the donors that have shelled out millions expecting that Kennedy, as a talented Deputy Mayor, could capitalize on rising crime, a heavily Democratic environment, and a trending-Democratic county. Thus far, even with so many strategic and structural advantages, she's failed. This poll data should only further discourage Kennedy's fundraising base, and worsen the already-growing disparity in television points...

Meanwhile, Tully used the data to justify another column adoring Eric Dickerson.

IndyStar Blankets MCP Coverage



- The Indianapolis Star ran two concurrent profiles of the two candidates for Marion County Prosecutor... Links: Kennedy Profile | Brizzi Profile | Interviews with Editorial Board | Peterson's Endorsements | PDF of Front Page

Has Brizzi Found an Opening with Amnesty?

The IndyStar says the issue "dominated" the debate (video):

The hourlong debate was the second of four scheduled in a prosecutor's race that has drawn more interest than usual with the absence of other tight local races. Nearly $3 million has been poured into the race, enabling both campaigns to blanket the airwaves with TV ads. It has become the most expensive prosecutor's race on record.

Audience members wrote questions on cards in advance about topics including the death penalty, illegal immigrants who commit crimes and the office's role in prosecuting misdeeds in state government.

One question alluded to charges filed Wednesday against Indiana Pacers player Stephen Jackson. Both candidates said public figures should receive the same treatment as everyone else.

Both also pledged to serve a full four-year term.

Second Debate

Video - WMV

Clips from WTHR's coverage of the second MCP debate.

All About Amnesty --- And Not for Immigrants

Matt Tully trashes Melina Kennedy's "amnesty" plan:

In a race where both candidates are obsessed with being seen as "tough," Brizzi couldn't have asked for more.

"These are not the types of criminals we need to give second and third chances to," he said with typical showmanship. "What we want to do is make Indianapolis as inhospitable as possible for these guys."

The problem for Kennedy is Brizzi has effectively bashed her lack of prosecutorial experience for weeks. Her proposing "a get-out-of-jail-free card," as Brizzi called it, gave him another chance to point to that issue.

"Only someone who has never prosecuted a gang member would propose something like this," he said.

In a race this big, each candidate will have bad days. Brizzi's had a few. Monday was Kennedy's turn.

Her response was weak. She defended her gang proposal but tried to downplay it by insisting it was only a "concept." She said the "concept" was aimed at "taking down the whole gang infrastructure by trying to peel away the young wannabes" and getting them to "testify against the gang leaders."

She wouldn't say what level of crimes would be forgiven but pointed to offenses such as carrying a handgun illegally.

Reality check. How many gang "wannabes" will take the stand and testify against gang leaders in exchange for dropping a minor charge?

Even using the word "amnesty" seems to me foolish, considering the millions that Republicans are spending attacking Democrats on immigration. Carl Brizzi ably seized on the issue today, generating some press and sending out this e-mail:

Having gang members write on the blackboard "I will not be a gang member" is not an effective way to deal with our city's growing gang problem. We need real leadership that won't hand out free passes to gun-toting gang members. Carl Brizzi was the Chief of Gang Prosecution under Scott Newman and last year helped pass a new law that doubles the jail time for gang members convicted of certain crimes.

Candidates on Sex Predators, "Amnesty"

Though Carl Brizzi has been running television ads about internet predators, Kennedy is trying to turn the tables--and is invoking Republican Congressman Mark Foley:

Kennedy, the Democratic challenger, announced a plan to combat online predators. She also said Brizzi, who is seeking reelection, could not be trusted on the issue because of a flap involving his assistant sex crimes chief in March 2005.

Brizzi fired Jay Meisenhelder after discovering a romantic e-mail he sent to a 16-year-old girl. Kennedy provided copies of that e-mail and alluded to a recent scandal in Washington, D.C., over online e-mails and conversations Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) had with 16- and 17-year-old congressional pages.

The Brizzi campaign hasn't changed their media plan for "Sting," an ad about online sexual predators (even including images of instant message exchanges), which began running on Indianapolis broadcast stations before the Foley scandal broke.

Kennedy's plan is called the Prosecutor's Regional Operation to Eliminate Child Threats —--- or "P.R.O.T.E.C.T." It includes more aggressive targeting of online sexual predators, making the office a clearinghouse for filtering software and publishing a registry of the sexual predators' online identities.

During his news conference, Brizzi, a Republican seeking reelection, repeated his criticism of an item in Kennedy's plan that would offer one-time amnesty to some young gang members. In exchange, they must turn in their guns and renounce their gang membership in writing.

"My intention is to go after the gang infrastructure by going against gang leaders," Kennedy said. She would target "wannabes" and fringe members with amnesty offers, she said.

Indianapolis Star Coverage of MPC Debate



How did Brizzi get put in front of a flag that was strikingly similar to his logo, and Kennedy got to stand in front of a giant WISH logo the entire time? ... Just wondering. IndyStar:

Carl Brizzi, the Republican incumbent, painted Melina Kennedy, his Democratic challenger, as a candidate lacking adequate prosecutorial or courtroom experience for the job.

Brizzi, Kennedy said, has overseen lower conviction rates in several areas, including domestic violence. She is ready to fill a leadership vacuum, she said.

In just over four weeks, voters will decide between the two in the area's highest-profile race. Sunday night's 30-minute debate on WISH (Channel 8) was the first of four scheduled.

On the experience question, Kennedy cited her background in civil litigation, as a clerk for the Indiana Supreme Court and as deputy mayor. But Brizzi said she would create an experience void at the top of the prosecutor's office.

"Every day, young prosecutors in my office come up to the sixth floor to ask for my advice," said Brizzi, who was a deputy prosecutor under his predecessor, Republican Scott Newman. "Being on the front lines and trying these cases makes all the difference in the world."

Kennedy cited Stephen Goldsmith, Indianapolis' former mayor. He earlier became prosecutor without having worked in the office. Leadership is more important in a large county prosecutor's office, she said.

"I agree (Brizzi has) very good experience," Kennedy said. "But I think when something's just not working, having someone coming in with a fresh perspective is the way to go."

The candidates agreed on several issues: Overcrowding in the Marion County Jail has stopped, but more efforts are needed. The death penalty should be used only for "the worst of the worst." Marijuana should stay illegal.

And the office should serve as a watchdog over state government, no matter the politics.

Brizzi & Kennedy Debate

Video - WMV

A bit from the MCP debate tonight hosted by WISH-TV. Nothing of any particular excitement, but worth a look if you didn't see it on TV.

FOP Endorses Brizzi

...but not Frank Anderson, because he supported the police merger. IndyStar has more.

Kennedy Out With New Ad

...but apparently it's only on cable (unveiled this weekend), and I haven't caught it on any of the networks. If you've got a copy, send it my way.

Candidates to Debate Four Times

The Star has Kennedy/Brizzi debate dates:

- Oct. 8: WISH (Channel 8) will broadcast a 30-minute debate live at 6:30 p.m., with political reporter Jim Shella moderating.

- Oct. 11:
Congregation Beth-El Zedeck, 600 W. 70th St., will host a debate at 7:30 p.m. It will be moderated by John Schwantes, host of "Indiana Lawmakers" and a panelist on "Indiana Week in Review," both on WFYI (Channel 20).

- Oct. 17:
The Rotary Club of Indianapolis will sponsor a debate at noon at the Murat Arabian Room, 502 N. New Jersey St. Dennis Ryerson, editor of The Indianapolis Star, will moderate.

Details are being worked out for a fourth October debate to be sponsored by WTHR (Channel 13) and The Star and broadcast live. Theresa Wells-Ditton, director of news planning and politics for WTHR, said she was working with both campaigns to set a date.

IWIR Panel on "Experienced, Tested, Tough"

Video - WMV

The IWIR panel was much more receptive to Melina Kennedy's ad than Carl Brizzi was, for sure...

Kennedy Slams Brizzi Over Another Catch-and-Release Killer

Video - WMV

RE: this Star article.

More Willie Hortons from Kennedy Camp

The Indianapolis Star reported today Melina Kennedy's new charges that Carl Brizzi's failures as prosecutor left a criminal on the streets, and allowed him to kill. If only her ads were this aggressive.

She was referring to Terrence "Mob" Anderson, 23, who was arrested in June 2005 and charged with three killings over two days on Indianapolis' Eastside.

In May 2005, Anderson had been in Marion County Jail on potential battery, handgun and cocaine possession charges. But Anderson was released while the prosecutor’s office waited for ballistics test results.

Several days later, on June 3, the prosecutor's office filed charges -- but Anderson wasn't arrested before the slayings on June 9 and June 10.

One of two shooting victims in one of the May incidents had identified Anderson in a photo lineup, but Brizzi and other officials said stronger evidence was needed. Once the test results came back June 3, Brizzi said, charges were filed as soon as possible.

"This is yet another in a series of misstatements by my opponent, who doesn't understand the process, who's never tried a case or put a criminal behind bars," said Brizzi, adding that suspects can't be held more than three days without charges. "We couldn't be any more aggressive without violating our Constitutional obligations."

Anderson has been convicted in the murder of Thomas Edmondson, 21, and sentenced to 60 years in prison. He was acquitted in the murder of Kerry Burk, 19. A trial is set Oct. 23 in the murder a third man, Tyric Rudolph, 16, and on the charges stemming from the May 2005 incidents.

Brizzi's New Cartoon, Kennedy's New TV Ad

Watch Video

Carl Brizzi is online with his second cartoon, this time with an inexperienced car mechanic botching a repair job.

Also: Melina Kennedy will reportedly take to the air tomorrow with her third television ad.

Brizzi, Kennedy Financing Update

From the Indianapolis Star:

Four years ago, Brizzi and his Democratic challenger spent about $1 million. The 1994 race was expensive, but even adjusted for inflation, the $900,000 spent that year won't keep pace with what political leaders expect Brizzi and Kennedy to spend in 2006.

In early September, spokesmen for each campaign said Kennedy had raised about $950,000 and Brizzi had amassed nearly $1.8 million.

Durham also has been Brizzi's top contributor since early 2005. The owner of Obsidian Enterprises, an Indianapolis holding company that owns and invests in several companies, has given $108,481.91. He said he is helping a close friend he thinks has done a good job in office.

Updated campaign finance records provided to The Indianapolis Star last week by both campaigns show Brizzi's second-ranking contributor, the Indianapolis law firm Baker and Daniels, has given $35,000.

Kennedy, Indianapolis' former deputy mayor, has big-ticket donors, too. The United Auto Workers -- including a political action committee and several affiliates across the state -- gave Kennedy $95,000. Bren Simon, an active Hoosier Democrat and the wife of mall developer Mel Simon, has given Kennedy $25,000.

The campaigns have provided updated lists of contributions through mid-August since the last state finance reports were due in April. Neither campaign, however, will say how much it has raised since mid-August until it files new finance reports in October.

Kennedy's new list of contributions showed nearly $253,000 raised from April through mid-August. Brizzi raised $353,000 in the same period.

Opps, Our Bad.

Carl Brizzi says the Marion County Democratic Party is all wrong when it claimed this week that Brizzi's office had been paying Brian Bosma's lawfirm without a contract:

In a news release headlined "Carl Brizzi takes care of his friends," Terry Burns, the party's executive director, blasted Brizzi for paying a politically connected law firm without a contract. More than $60,000 was paid from 2003 to 2005 to Kroger, Gardis and Regas, a firm that includes Indiana House Speaker Brian C. Bosma, R-Indianapolis.

The Democrats, who called for an independent audit of the office's finances, got the information from a public records request.

But Brizzi, a Republican running for re-election against Democrat Melina Kennedy, said they asked for the wrong information.

The Democrats requested any written agreements with the firm. The prosecutor's office replied that it "has no contract or agreement or letter of engagement with this law firm."

Not that it never did.

"We took it to mean current contracts," Brizzi said. His office had a written agreement for the firm to provide guardianship work but terminated it last year, he said. The office hires a handful of outside law firms for some work, and Brizzi said Bosma's firm had worked with the prosecutor's office for 10 years.

New Brizzi Ad Soon

Carl Brizzi's campaign will unveil a new ad today focusing on meth...

IndyGOP Goes to Bat for Brizzi

The Marion County Republican Party is running a television ad in Indianapolis which blames Mayor Bart Peterson for the uptick in crime... I'm working on getting a copy.

Brizzi's Hair Salon

Watch Video

Carl Brizzi wanted to "have fun" by "highlighting when inexperience takes over," so his campaign hired Carmel-based MediaSauce to produce a cartoon comparing Melina Kennedy's "inexperience" to a poor cosmetologist.

It is a bit interesting how Brizzi's camp is making a definite effort to be funny...

GOP: Kennedy's Results Matter, Too

Marion County Republicans are blaming Indianapolis's poor job growth between 2000-2005 on Melina Kennedy:

Last week, Democrat candidate for Marion County Prosecutor Melina Kennedy said "Just like in any business, government is the same. You have got to have performance be part of what we look at."[1] A review of Kennedy's performance as Director of Economic Development for the City of Indianapolis from June 2001-September 2004 and Deputy Mayor of Economic Development from September 2004-September 2005 reveals significantly poor results.

According to data released by CNN[2], when Melina Kennedy was in charge of economic development for the city, Indianapolis suffered from -1.37% job growth from 2000-2005.

"Kennedy continues to say that "results matter" but she was unable to produce positive results in her last job. When Kennedy was responsible for economic development, cities neighboring Indianapolis prospered while Indianapolis failed to produce positive job results," said Marion County Republican Party, Executive Director Mike Biberstine. "Her sole responsibility was to provide a positive economic climate so that Marion County residents could earn a decent living to provide for their families, but Kennedy failed to produce results."

Two cities surrounding Indianapolis saw job growth top 30% from 2000-2005. Fishers was ranked 15th in the nation in fastest job growth while Carmel was ranked 24th in the nation.

"We're seeing phenomenal job growth in cities just one county north of Indianapolis, yet when Melina Kennedy was responsible, Marion County experienced less job growth than our neighbors and less growth than Gary, Indiana" said Biberstine.

"The economy is a major factor in crime rates. We should not reward Melina Kennedy for results like this. We cannot afford to elect a Prosecutor who has zero experience prosecuting criminals and has negative results in her last job," said Biberstine.

Melina Kennedy has never filed a charge, never tried a case, and never put a criminal behind bars.

Someone doesn't know how to use commas...

This Week's Docket

The IndyStar compiled some campaign events for the upcoming week:

Monday
- United Senior Action and Indiana Alliance of Retired Americans congressional candidates forum, 10 a.m. to noon, North United Methodist Church, 3808 N. Meridian St.
- Red Mass, 6 p.m., St. John Catholic Church, 126 W. Georgia St. Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi, a Republican seeking re-election, is to speak during the annual Mass to honor and pray for justice system workers.
- U.S. Rep. Dan Burton's "Porkbuster's Golf," 1 p.m., Winding Ridge Golf Club, 5450 Bogey Drive, Lawrence. Information: (317) 546-5673.
- Indiana Election Commission, 3 p.m., Indiana Government Center South, teleconference media center, 402 W. Washington St.

Tuesday
- Indiana State Fraternal Order of Police, political action committee legislative night, 6 to 9 p.m., Indianapolis FOP Lodge 86, 1427 E. Washington St.

Wednesday
- Citizens Action Against Rising Crime rally, 11 a.m., Statehouse's east steps. Melina Kennedy, Democratic candidate for prosecutor, is to attend.

Thursday
- Ron Alting for State Senate dinner, 5:30 p.m., McGraws' Home, 2707 S. River Road, Lafayette. Information: (765) 477-7510. $50 per person.

Friday
- Whitley County Thomas R. Marshall Dinner featuring Sen. Vi Simpson, D-Ellettsville, and congressional candidate Tom Hayhurst, 5:30 p.m., Eagles Nest Event Center, off Ind. 205, Columbia City. Information or reservations: (260) 244-5146.

Saturday
- Latino Coalition Against Domestic and Sexual Violence rally, noon, Monument Circle. Kennedy is scheduled to attend.

Striptease Aerobics!

The Indianapolis Star reports that some Marion County Democrats want Carl Brizzi to return campaign cash:

This past week, the Marion County Democratic Party asked Brizzi to return money raised Tuesday night during a $100-per-person "beach party" at Landsharks, a Broad Ripple Avenue bar. Turns out police have responded to more than 150 incident reports at the bar since 1999, according to the Democrats.

They also pointed out that the bar's Web site touts go-go dancers and Thursday night "Striptease Aerobics" -- though the latter is an exercise class that bans both nudity and men.

Brizzi would not say how much was raised and declined to forgo the contributions.

...but the Kennedy camp says it "had nothing to do with the news release." Is this the Kennedy camp getting the party to make its most ridiculous accusations for them, so as to avoid embarassment, or do they seriously not talk to each other?

WTHR Teases Brizzi Ad

Video - WMV

WTHR at noon today gave a short preview of what's to come out of Brizzi's camp these evening.

I should have Brizzi's new spot up in the next hour or two---it'll premiere soon on Indianapolis broadcast stations.

Brizzi on the Attack

Carl Brizzi will go on the air today with a "humorous" attack ad, according to Tully:

It features a lifeguard who doesn't know how to swim, a pilot who has never flown a plane, and a dentist who has never performed a root canal.

The ad asks viewers whether they would want to be the first person the lifeguard tries to save, a passenger on the pilot's first flight, or the dentist's first root canal patient.

After asking those questions, the ad asks voters why they would vote for a prosecutor who has never tried a case.

The HobNob

Video - WMV

WISH on the HobNob, a Chamber of Commerce event last night that allowed candidates to---what else?---rub shoulders with the businesses that will exploit them after they're elected.

IOM 2, Kennedy 0, Brizzi 0.

Carl Brizzi was set to begin airing a new television advertisement today, but when I flipped on WTHR, it was still airing his old "Tough" spot. On WISH, his new ad was up. The new one is not yet on his website.

Melina Kennedy's new ad is not on her website yet either, but IOM has copies of both. (Ha!)

Brizzi's spot focuses on gang violence, touting his credentials as former Marion County chief gang prosecutor...Kennedy's charges that Brizzi fails to provide leadership to his 150 deputy prosecutors, and that Brizzi's "weak pleas, even simple paper work errors---all leading to criminals back on our streets..."

I'd characterize Kennedy's new spot as "soft negative," a sort of ad that Indiana Democrats resort to often, attempting not to sling too much mud, because their polling says voters don't like it, but to impugn their opponents nonetheless. The result is a bad taste in voters' mouths, but no firm negative impression of the Republican (watch the Kennedy ad; you'll see) to walk away with...It's wasted advertising, and might even be counterproductive. Kennedy can do better, and should, if she wants to win.

As an aside: did anyone notice that Kennedy's ad featured a headline that her own campaign whipped up? "Brizzi slammed over escapes...But in case cited by his challenger, charge was filed."

WTHR on Kennedy, Brizzi Ads

Video - WMV

WTHR spent a decent chuck of time this evening on the Marion County Prosecutor's race, including some more information about both camps new ads.

IndyStar on Campaign Thus Far

From reporter Jon Murray:

Already the contest has become the highest-profile local race on the ballot this fall, and it is veering toward the most expensive campaign for Marion County prosecutor on record. Kennedy, a Democrat, launched her first TV ad this summer, and Brizzi, the Republican incumbent, debuted his own TV spots this month.
...
Brizzi's campaign spent about $800,000 on the 2002 campaign, but this time around it plans to spend at least that much on TV spots alone. In April, when the campaigns last filed finance reports, Brizzi had the advantage in cash, with $1.2 million on hand to Kennedy's $470,000.

Neither campaign will release comparable numbers until October, when the next finance reports are due. But a Kennedy spokesman said she had raised about $950,000 through early September; Brizzi's campaign said Tuesday that it now has raised nearly $1.8 million for his re-election effort since he took office in 2003.

The Same Courtroom

Giggle courtesy of Jim Shella, on today's new MCP ads from both candidates:

Brizzi taped his first ad in a courtroom. Kennedy taped her second ad in the same courtroom. Its the same courtroom.

The Hamilton County Historical Society rents out the courtroom in the old Hamilton County courthouse. The cost is $125 dollars a day. Not only did both prosecutor candidates use it this year, but two years ago both Republican Steve Carter and Democrat Joe Hogsett used it for ads in the race for Attorney General.

Within MoE

WISH finally posted the story:

The 24-Hour News 8 poll indicates that Kennedy's message is getting through. The challenger in the race for Marion County prosecutor leads 43-to-42. She wins with both women and democrats.

"We are exactly where we want to be and frankly where we expected to be," said Kennedy.

A new Brizzi ad plays up his experience. The incumbent Republican also wants voters to compare. He wins with men and Republicans.

"The folks polled in that survey, I just wonder if they're aware that she never prosecuted a case, she's never filed a charge, she's never put a criminal in jail," Brizzi said.

The poll indicates that independent voters will decide this race and Kennedy holds a one point lead there, 39-to-38, but 23 percent of Independents are undecided.

The story also teased Kennedy's new ad, which will begin running tomorrow. It'll mark the first negative (though what I would call soft negative) spot of the campaign...Brizzi will also unveil his second spot, which "plays up his experience."

Brizzi's Third Online Video

Watch Video

Carl Brizzi is out with his third online video, called "Door to Door." Says the campaign: "Campaigning street to street and having friends and neighbors pass on our message of victim-centered prosecution is one of the most importatnt parts of our campaign..."

Toss-up Between Brizzi, Kennedy

I didn't catch WISH (nor was I recording it, because their political coverage is almost entirely nonexistant), but this from a commenter:

Poll just aired on Channel 8: Kennedy: 43 Brizzi: 42 ... Among Undecideds: Kennedy: 39 Brizzi: 38 MOE: +/- 5

On Air, But No New Ads from Kennedy

Last week, when Carl Brizzi unveiled "Tough," it was reported that after more than a week off the air, Melina Kennedy would return to television with a new ad campaign.

Well she's back on TV, but with the same old ads. They began running again on Indianapolis noon news today...

Brizzi is "Tough"

Video - WMV

WTHR previewed Brizzi's ad, "Tough," which I've listed at right.

Brizzi's First TV Ads

Much anticipated, Carl Brizzi launched his ad campaign today...more from WTHR:

Campaign manager Matthew Symons says the ad is meant to send voters a clear message about the Republican incumbent. "What they'll take a way is that Carl is tough on crime and wakes up to make the city safer," he said.

After watching a copy of the ad, Republican political analyst Peter Rusthoven called it effective. "If I look at what people want out of a prosecutor, that's probably the image they want," he said.

But the Marion County Democratic chairman says it doesn't matter. "It's a very good ad and he will have money and he will spend it and it will be a tough campaign and he will lose," said Ed Treacy.

The ad is running in the Indianapolis media market (I've only been able to confirm WISH so far). The spots are not on Brizzi's website yet, but I'll get a copy up this evening. The Brizzi ad ("Tough") is on the right, replete with a full five seconds of Brizzi, silent, crossing his arms and looking, well, tough.

Tomorrow: Brizzi Ads

Jim Shella says the Brizzi ads will drop tomorrow:

Carl Brizzi campaign ads hit the air tomorrow. They carry an introductory message for the Republican prosecutor's fall campaign, but unlike challenger Melina Kennedy's ads, they are not biographical. Brizzi assumes he is well-known to voters already.

The Brizzi ads begin almost six weeks after Kennedy hit the air.

Stat Spat: Now With Video!

Video - WMV

Melina Kennedy has been charging for the last two days, with her fancy Excel graphs, that the domestic violence conviction rate since Carl Brizzi took office has dropped from 33% to only 9% now. Brizzi's reviewed the analysis, he says, and claims that Kennedy did not take into account suspects that pled guilty or were convicted of stiffer charges. "If my opponent doesn't want like the facts, she manipulates the data so that it says want she wants...what she wants it to say."

I'm not sure how Brizzi concluded this, but even if Kennedy didn't account for those situations, the only way---as far as I can tell---that it could have altered the data is if she'd accounted for them in the 2003 figures and then not in 2006, meaning that Brizzi's current conviction rate would be artificially lower because the two samples are held to different standards...The figures are all relative, regardless. It would be quite the accusation to say that Kennedy's campaign changed the data's criteria thusly in each year of the analysis; that'd be gravely dishonest. But impossible for Carl to surmise.

A Day in Brizzi's Life

Watch Video

Carl Brizzi posted a new web video today called "Day in the Life," which was a surprisingly interesting account of his workouts with Cher blasting ("Just go crazy!") and how one of his witnesses ended up in the same jail cell as the person he was going to testify against (ouch!).

Coming later this evening: WTHR coverage of the Kennedy/Brizzi stat spat.

A Stat Spat

Melina Kennedy wisely called a news conference this morning to distract from the unveiling of the famed "Brizzi Brief" version 2006, that ordinarily would have meant solitary coverage for the Republican (bad move announcing it Saturday, Carl) incumbent...The two argued over statistics:

She cited data showing the conviction rate for such cases had declined from 2002 to 2005. In 2002, 33 percent of all domestic violence cases resulted in convictions; in 2005, that rate was 9 percent.

"For three years, domestic batterers have gone largely unpunished," Kennedy said.
But Brizzi -- at a news conference this afternoon to announce his "Brizzi Brief 2006"-- disputed Kennedy's analysis. Many of the more than 16,000 charges in that four-year period were multiple counts for the same defendants, he said. In a plea agreement, some would have been dismissed while the suspect pleaded guilty to one or two.

Through a spokesman, Kennedy responded this afternoon that her campaign considered that, only counting the outcome for each suspect.

The Republican prosecutor took office in 2003 and was not sure why the conviction rate had declined. One problem he cited is domestic violence victims' unwillingness to testify against their abusers or help prosecutors, which dooms more than half of cases to dismissal.

Brizzi Announces Campaign Platform...

...on the least-read news day of the week. Smooth.

Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi will release Monday a 2006 version of his "Brizzi Brief," a plan to "improve 12 justice areas."

"We've done a great job in the office," said Brizzi, who provided a copy of the new brief Friday. "What we set out to do, we've accomplished. But that doesn't mean the job is done."

The report examines a dozen areas, listing progress and plans to expand those efforts.

Brizzi's Democratic challenger, Melina Kennedy, said her campaign would produce a similar plan before the November election. She has announced some initiatives, including one this month that would use habitual-offender laws more often to seek stiffer sentences.

"The last four years, we have experienced a rise in crime," Kennedy said, "and it doesn't appear the plans that were put in place have produced the results we want."
Brizzi said Friday that Hispanic gangs, human trafficking and identity theft are "becoming more prevalent" and curbing them would be among his priorities in a new term.

Marion County Democrats Working to Identify Base

Tully has word today that the Marion County Democratic Party is calling every Washington Township person that voted in the 2004 November election, excluding primary goers. The aim is to identify 10,000-15,000 Democrats and the Party has plans to expand the canvassing into other townships. It outsourced the canvassing to a Texas firm.

One of the greatest weaknesses of the VAN, I believe, is its overemphasis on primary data, and the MCDP knows it.

Starting in Washington Township, the Texas firm targeted 15,000 general election voters who have not voted in primaries. The firm was able to reach about 8,700 voters, and about 5,400 agreed to chat. More people dropped out as the calls progressed.

In the end, the firm found about 1,500 Democrats who had not previously stated their party affiliation in a primary. The firm also identified about 525 people who voted for Bush in 2004 but, when asked if they would vote Republican this year, said either "no" or "undecided."

This Really Isn't "Non-Traditional" Anymore...

Watch Video

Carl Brizzi, though he's not released any television ads yet, is online with the first in a series of webcasts:

Carl Brizzi launches a non-traditional web campaign that will include a discussion of issues and their real-life impact on our community and also some light-hearted glimpses of the Prosecutor and life on the campaign trail.

Weighing Incumbency

Tully analyzes the political strategy behind Melina Kennedy's recent James Stewart brouhaha:

On issues like these, Kennedy has the easier job: Pick a crime and show how its perpetrator could have been treated tougher. It's always easier to put every bad guy away for the longest possible stint when you're on the outside looking in.
Nonetheless, she is raising a good point.

She's also showing how, for Brizzi, being the incumbent is both a plus and a minus. Some days, he's putting bad guys in prison. Other days, he's answering for decisions his office made years ago.

For at least one day this week, he was on the defensive.

Throw Back to Hitler Ad

Download as WMV

All of this Carl Brizzi / Willie Horton / James Stewart talk reminds me of the Virginia Gubernatorial race in 2005, when Republican Jerry Kilgore and ad maker Scott Howell released perhaps the most controversial ad since the Swift Boaties. Called "Stanley," it featured Stanley Rosenbluth, whose son and daughter in-law was murdered by a man named Mark Sheppard, whom Kaine briefly represented when an attorney in his law firm was assigned by the court to handle Sheppard's appeal. (FactCheck.org wrote that the ad went "too far" in its factual distortions.)

Kilgore then goes on, through Stanley, to charge that Kaine wouldn't support the death penalty for Adolf Hitler. "I don't trust Tim Kaine when it comes to the death penalty, and I say that as a father who's had a son murdered."

It's a very well done spot by one of the nation's top Republican ad makers, but ultimately, it was so harsh that it turned more voters off Kilgore than it did Kaine, who won by six points.

Interesting Indiana connection: the ad maker that was responsible for the Swift Boat spots, Stevens Reed Curcio & Potholm, was hired by Chris Chocola's camp in 2004 and again this year.

Star Coverage of James Stewart

The Indianapolis Star picks up on Melina Kennedy's James Stewart accusations:

A suspect in the June slayings of an Indianapolis family should have been behind bars at the time of the crime, according to the Democratic challenger for Marion County prosecutor.

James Stewart was eligible to be charged as a habitual substance offender in May 2004 after his arrest for dealing marijuana, Melina Kennedy said Monday. His ultimate conviction on that charge followed a 1994 conviction for operating a vehicle while intoxicated and one in 1996 for dealing in cocaine.

The stiffer sentence could have added up to eight years to his incarceration, Kennedy said. Instead, Stewart was sentenced to 180 days in jail.

This would make for a great ad indeed...Does anyone know which media firm is handling Kennedy's campaign?

UPDATED: First Willie Horton, then Travis Moore, Now James Stewart

UPDATE: Watch the RTV6 segment on Kennedy's announcement (WMV)

Last June, the NRCC attempted to (dishonestly) link Brad Ellsworth to a Vanderburgh County judge's decision not to imprison Travis John Moore. On April 22, 2005, Moore, on work release from the two-year sentence he was given for his connection in a robbery, killed his ex-girlfriend, two of her friends, and then himself. (More info is here)

Now there are signs Melina Kennedy will employ the same strategy against MCP Carl Brizzi:

Melina Kennedy, the Democratic challenger, has called a morning news conference to question Republican Prosecutor Carl Brizzi's handling of a high-profile defendant.

According to the Kennedy campaign, she will question why Brizzi didn't pursue tougher drug charges against James A. Stewart back in 2004.

Stewart is one of the two men charged in this year's most horrific crime -- the shooting deaths of seven people on North Hamilton Avenue in June. He and Desmond Turner have been charged with seven counts of murder.

Brizzi is counting on his experience to carry him to victory in November, repeatedly reminding voters that Kennedy has no experience as a trial lawyer or prosecutor. The Kennedy campaign, meantime, hopes to turn Brizzi's experience into a negative.

Melina Kennedy's First Ad

Melina Kennedy has launched a biographical ad (the first for her campaign and beating her Republican opponent, Carl Brizzi, who reportedly already has multiple ads canned, to the punch) in the Indianapolis media market. Tully has more.



Download as MOV

IN-08: 3Q Reporting

Hostettler

Ellsworth

3Q Net Raised

165,252

430,322

3Q Spent

90,894

693,568

PAC (Total)

16,950

144,523

Debts

9,000

0

CoH

269,704

413,464


IN-09: 3Q Reporting

Sodrel

Hill

3Q Net Raised

437,053

364,542

3Q Spent

486,720

405,019/h3>

PAC (Total)

219,048

111,200

Debts

251,927

0

CoH

1,072,320

927,402


IN-02: 3Q Reporting

Chocola

Donnelly

2Q Net Raised

809,010

551,284

2Q Spent

1,361,584

662,852

PAC (Total)

362,900

153,074

Debts

0

125,400

CoH

1,001,909

333,450


IN-02: 2Q Reporting

Chocola

Donnelly

2Q Net Raised

365,863

176,332

2Q Spent

238,236

63,239

PAC (Total)

180,094

69,368

Debts

0

125,400

CoH

1,554,483

435,216


IN-09: 2Q Reporting

Sodrel

Hill

2Q Net Raised

462,363

375,954

2Q Spent

169,795

96,065

PAC (Total)

205,303

141,900

Debts

255,427

0

CoH

1,138,747

967,879


IN-08: 2Q Reporting

Hostettler

Ellsworth

2Q Net Raised

168,484

354,910

2Q Spent

29,182

211,900

PAC (Total)

46,550

164,552

Debts

9,000

0

CoH

195,146

676,476


IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

46%

Hill (D)

44%

Undecided

4%

Schansberg

5%


Survey USA / WHAS-TV poll of 538 LVs, conducted 10/31-11/2. MoE +/- 4.3%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Donnelly (D)

50%

Chocola (R)

47%

Undecided

3%


South Bend Tribune / WSBT / Research 2000 poll of 400 LVs, MoE of +/- 5%. Conducted Oct. 30-31.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Donnelly (D)

52%

Chocola (R)

39%

Undecided

6%


Reuters poll of 500 LVs, conducted Oct. 24-29. MoE +/- 4.5 percentage points.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

46%

Hill (D)

47.5%

Undecided

4%


Reuters poll of 500 LVs, conducted Oct. 24-29. MoE +/- 4.5 percentage points.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

45%

Hill (D)

47%

Undecided

8%


Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

43%

Ellsworth (D)

50%

Undecided

7%


Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.



MCP: General Election Matchup

Brizzi (R)

50%

Kennedy (D)

42%

Undecided

8%


Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

43%

Hill (D)

47%

Other/Undecided

5%

Schansberg (L)

5%


Survey USA / WHAS-TV poll of 519 LVs conducted 10/20-22. MoE +/- 4.4%.



MCP: General Election Matchup

Brizzi (R)

51%

Kennedy (D)

35%

Other/Undecided

14%


WTHR / Selzer & Co. Inc. poll of 600 LVs. Conducted 10/16-18, MoE +/- 4%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

45%

Donnelly (D)

50%

Undecided

5%


WSBT and Research 2000; telephone poll of 400 LVs, Oct. 16-17. MoE +/-5%.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

32%

Ellsworth (D)

55%

Undecided

11%


Evansville Courier Press / Indiana State University poll of 626 LVs, conducted 10/5-12. MoE +/- 3.9%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

46%

Donnelly (D)

50%

Undecided

4%


Majority Watch RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics poll, MoE +/- 3.07%; surveyed 989 voters 10/8-10/10.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

46%

Hill (D)

48%

Other/Undecided

6%


WHAS-TV/SurveyUSA poll of 512 LVs, MoE +/- 4.4%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

36%

Donnelly (D)

52%

Undecided

12%


Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) poll; conducted 10/4-5 for the DCCC of 400 LVs; MoE +/- 4.9%



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

44%

Donnelly (D)

45%

Undecided

11%


A Mercury Public Affairs (R) poll; conducted 10/9 for Chocola, surveying 300 LVs; MoE +/- 5.66%



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

39%

Donnelly (D)

49%

Undecided

12%


Reuters/Zogby poll, conducted 9/25-10/2 of 502 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 44%D, 40%R, 16%I/O.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

38%

Hill (D)

46%

Undecided

16%


Reuters/Zogby poll, conducted 9/25-10/2 of 500 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 47%D, 39%R, 14%I/O.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

31.8%

Ellsworth (D)

47.4%

Undecided

16.6%

No Response

4.1%


Indiana State University / Evansville Courier Press poll, of 603 registered voters, conducted Sept. 6-21, MoE +/- 4%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

42%

Donnelly (D)

50%

Undecided

8%


WSBT and Research 2000; telephone poll of 400 LVs, Sept. 15-17. MoE +/-5%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

40%

Donnelly (D)

52%

Undecided

7%

IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

45%

Ellsworth (D)

51%

Undecided

4%

IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

42%

Hill (D)

53%

Undecided

5%


Majority Watch, RT Strategies & Constituent Dynamics. IN-02 data: Sept. 8-10, 1003 respondents; MoE +/- 3.09%. IN-08 data: Sept. 8-10, 1031 respondents; MoE +/- 3.04%. IN-09 data: Sept. 8-10, 1017 respondents; MoE +/- 3.07%.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

40%

Ellsworth (D)

44%

Undecided

16%

IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

40%

Hill (D)

46%

Undecided

14%

MCP: General Election Matchup

Brizzi (R)

42%

Kennedy (D)

43%

Undecided

15%

IN-09: Worth Going to War

Yes

43%

No

46%

Not Sure

11%

IN-08: Worth Going to War

Yes

45%

No

45%

Not Sure

10%

IN-07: Worth Going to War

Yes

30%

No

59%

Not Sure

11%


Research 2000 poll, conducted Sept. 5-8, MoE +/- 5% of 800 LVs for WISH-TV



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

41%

Donnelly (D)

46%

Undecided

13%

IN-02: Chocola as Rep.

Approve

47%

Disapprove

47%

IN-02: Donnelly (D) Favorability

Favorable

43%

Unfavorable

31%

IN-02: Chocola (R) Favorability

Favorable

45%

Unfavorable

44%


Conducted 7/21-23 for the South Bend Tribune and WSBT-TV; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 5%