"Scary" Direct Mail in HD-86

Tully laments negative mail:

Oh my. What a choice.

If you vote for Democratic state Rep. David Orentlicher on Nov. 7, your kids will be murdered. And if you vote for Republican challenger Kathryn Densborn, that'll be the end of days for your poor parents, or your loving spouse.
Choices. Choices.

This is like picking between Charles Manson and the Boston Strangler.

Or so it would seem after reading the blather landing in District 86 mailboxes these days. The negative mailers coming out of the Democratic and Republican political parties are so ridiculously negative that they would seem funny -- if not for the corpses and crying children in the photos, that is.
I'm not exaggerating.

This Halloween season, there's no reason to rent a horror flick. If you're in the mood for some death and gore, just browse through the latest campaign mail in District 86.

Democrats Reach Near Financial Parity with GOP

Or perhaps as close to it as they'll ever come.

The Republicans reported raising $1.9 million this year, with $2.6 million total this election cycle. They had spent $2.1 million this year and had $502,000 in cash on hand.

The Democrats reported raising $1.1 million this year, with $1.7 million total this election cycle. They had spent $1.4 million this year and had $307,500 cash on hand.
...
House Minority Leader B. Patrick Bauer, D-South Bend, has so far outraised House Speaker Brian C. Bosma, R-Indianapolis. Bauer had raised $546,912 this election cycle, spending $69,862. He had cash on hand of $474,485.

Bosma had raised $436,343 this election cycle, spent only $16,315 and had cash on hand of $420,028.

Both legislative leaders generally use their campaign funds to support other candidates in their caucus.

Republicans Wrap Themselves in Flag, Giant Sheets of Paper

Video - WMV (WTHR) | Video - WMV (WRTV)

Indiana House Republicans did their 6th signing of giant sheet of paper today, this time promising to boost veterans benefits. From the Indianapolis Star:






Veterans and active-duty soldiers would receive heftier tax credits, deductions, childcare assistance and other benefits under an election-year plan offered today by House Republicans.

The proposals, which lawmakers said would be put before next year's General Assembly, include:

- Exempting active-duty pay of Indiana Reservists and National Guard members from state income taxes.

- Increasing tax deductions for active-duty soldiers from $2,000 to $5,000.

- Expanding the state’s Military Family Relief Fund to include childcare assistance and cover all active-duty personnel.

- Limiting public access to soldiers' military discharge papers, which contain personal information.

House Speaker Brian C. Bosma, R-Indianapolis, made the announcement in front of the stoic Downtown memorial for the sunken battleship, U.S.S. Indianapolis.

Democrats Link Legislative Opponents to Daniels

Indiana House Democrats are hoping to link their Republican opponents to Governor Mitch Daniels:

There's no doubt that Daniels has irked many people through some of his initiatives.

Statewide daylight-saving time has been an emotional and divisive issue in Indiana for years — a reason that numerous attempts to pass it failed over three decades. Daniels said it would eliminate confusion and improve commerce, and he twisted enough Republican arms to get it done.
...
All House Democrats voted against the bill that led to a 75-year lease of the toll road in northern Indiana for $3.8 billion. Daniels says the money will help fund hundreds of highway projects, but Democrats said it was a bad financial deal and argued that a major state asset should not be run by a foreign entity.
...
Whether the strategy works remains to be seen. Legislative races often boil down to personalities and local issues, McCann noted. But it's possible Daniels could hurt some Republicans.

He has certainly turned off Dale Shake of Washington, Ind., who said he was a lifelong Republican who voted for Daniels in 2004. He said he received a poll call that asked him to rate the governor's performance between one and five.

"I came back and said, 'Do you have anything below that one?"' said Shake, 65. He said he was upset about the northern Indiana toll road lease — even though he lives in Daviess County in southwest Indiana — and the time switch.

He said he had known and liked Crooks' Republican opponent, Ron Arnold, for years. But because of Daniels, he's going to vote for Crooks.

Daniels said Democrats were misrepresenting his record and making some claims that were outright false.

Daniels touted his record, saying a budget deficit he blamed on Democrats had been erased; many inefficiencies and wrongdoing in state government had been eliminated; and a huge transportation funding gap had been filled by money from the toll road lease.

"Indiana was sitting still. I thought that was a mistake so we've acted," he said.

Republican House Speaker Brian Bosma said it is "a concern to us when the governor's numbers are not what he wants and the president's numbers are not what we want, but both are great leaders nonetheless."

"But this election is not about that," he said. "It's about who can lead at the local level, and the Republicans out there are way ahead in that regard," he said.

IN Dems: Economy Still in the Dumps

The Indiana Democratic Party sent out this news release, making sure everyone knows that Indiana is still losing jobs:

Indiana lost 2,200 jobs in August, according to data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The loss was the fifth-highest in the nation last month.

Last week, the Indiana Department of Workforce Development issued a news release about the numbers stating that employment "declined slightly" in August.

"It goes to show how out of touch this Governor and his administration are when they don't think losing 2,000 jobs is a big deal," said Indiana Democratic Party Chair Dan Parker. "I'm guessing it was more than a slight decline for the Hoosiers who no longer have jobs."

"They Know Me"

If their tables at last week's HobNob were any indication of competitiveness, Brian Bosma must be fairly confident:

Each legislative district in the Indianapolis area was assigned a single table, divided carefully down the middle by a strip of red ribbon. State Rep. David Orentlicher, D-Indianapolis, filled his side of the District 86 table (the left side, of course) with T-shirts, stickers and pamphlets.

On the right side, Republican Kathryn Densborn, trying to unseat Orentlicher, had hats, pamphlets, stickers and other items to hand out.

Pretty much every inch of the table was filled, reflecting the closeness of the race between them.

A couple of tables away, though, it was a different picture. Democrat Susan Fuldauer had filled her side of the District 88 table with campaign literature and talked about the race at length to anyone she could.

Her opponent?

House Speaker Brian C. Bosma, R-Indianapolis.

Bosma's side of the table was bare. Nothing. Zip. Nada.

He didn't need any buttons or pamphlets, he said.

"For this crowd," he said, referring to the Chamber of Commerce members, "they know who I am. They know where I stand. They don't need a slick item with my picture on it."

The Howey Political Report ranks Bosma's race as "Lean Bosma."

Fuzzy Math at the BMV

Perhaps have wondered how the House GOP would ever fulfill their 30-minute BMV guarantee. Matt Tully found out:

Under the propaganda program, a branch visit starts when you reach the welcome desk and ends when you grab your wallet and hand over your cash.

So the 20 minutes I spent standing in line waiting to reach the welcome desk?
Never happened.

And that 10 minutes I spent waiting for my new license to be printed after I paid?
Never happened.

That's how 45 minutes became 15. And that's how the BMV can preposterously boast about such speedy service.

Welcome to the Indiana Bureau of Motor Vehicles -- a place where clocks came off the walls so we feeble-minded Hoosiers wouldn't realize how long we'd been in line. At the new and unimproved BMV, time is a very squishy thing.

The squishiness raises all kinds of issues.

For instance:

If the BMV is counting only one-third of my visit time, could I have paid only one-third of my license renewal fee? That would have saved me $14.

Bosma Prays

Video - WMV

The Indiana Week in Review panel discussed whether Brian Bosma's very public crusade for Christian prayer at the Statehouse will help Republicans court religious conservatives---even though nearly every Legislator supported a motion condemning the injunction by a federal judge that dealt Bosma a defeat late last year...

By the Numbers

Connie Basham On the Air

Connie Basham, one of the GOP's top priorities, has begun airing TV ads in her Lafayette district focusing on higher education...

Perspective on "Un-caring Conservatives"

The Kokomo Perspective's stinging editorial today is a must-read:


This Labor Day, Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels didn't hit the pavement to campaign for the GOP's state legislature candidates. In fact, Daniels has largely stayed away from the campaign path throughout this year's elections.

After all, what can he say? "Sorry I sold off your toll road, and want to privatize everything I possibly can. Sorry the BMV is a complete mess, and I took away employees' right to collective bargaining, and the Republican-controlled legislature still hasn't done anything to help with your property taxes. Sorry your local domestic violence shelter almost shut down because the FSSA couldn't get its act together. But vote Republican for more of the same!"

Would Bauer Put I-69 in Jeopardy?

A I-69 group says the interstate project might come to a hault if Democrats win back the Indiana House this fall. The organization, called Hoosier Voices for I-69, is run by Steve Schaefer, a Republican that's run for a House seat in the past.

Bauer said last week he supports building I-69 to Evansville, but he would have preferred to finance the interstate's construction by issuing two 20-year bonds - utilizing higher tolls - which he said could have generated $2 billion or more, without raising taxes.

Steve Schaefer, executive director of Hoosier Voices for I-69, said Monday that Bauer "worked hard to thwart the only real plan to pay for I-69."

"Bauer's plan to borrow and bond more money falls hundreds of millions of dollars short of completing a fraction of the number of projects that Major Moves will accomplish," Schaefer said in a written statement.

Austin, Lanane Fight for Guide Workers

Video - WMV

Though Terri Austin's House district isn't generally considered competitive, she's working to save nearly 1,200 Anderson jobs at a Guide plant, and deserves props. With Senator Tim Lanane, the two are calling on Governor Daniels to craft an incentive package for the company to keep its plant open.

IWIR Panel Weighs Legislative Implications of BMV Disaster

Two Challengers with Online Video

Two House Democratic challengers, Ron Herrell (HD30) and Ron Liggett (HD33), are online with campaign videos.

Ron Liggett - "Major Moves" Ad Profile | Download as WMV

Ron Liggett - "BMV" Ad Profile | Download as WMV

Ron Liggett - "DST" Ad Profile | Download as WMV

Ron Liggett - "Tired" Ad Profile | Download as WMV

Ron Herrell - "A Million" Ad Profile | Download as WMV

Ron Herrell - "The Ron Herrell Story" Ad Profile | Download as WMV

IN-08: 3Q Reporting

Hostettler

Ellsworth

3Q Net Raised

165,252

430,322

3Q Spent

90,894

693,568

PAC (Total)

16,950

144,523

Debts

9,000

0

CoH

269,704

413,464


IN-09: 3Q Reporting

Sodrel

Hill

3Q Net Raised

437,053

364,542

3Q Spent

486,720

405,019/h3>

PAC (Total)

219,048

111,200

Debts

251,927

0

CoH

1,072,320

927,402


IN-02: 3Q Reporting

Chocola

Donnelly

2Q Net Raised

809,010

551,284

2Q Spent

1,361,584

662,852

PAC (Total)

362,900

153,074

Debts

0

125,400

CoH

1,001,909

333,450


IN-02: 2Q Reporting

Chocola

Donnelly

2Q Net Raised

365,863

176,332

2Q Spent

238,236

63,239

PAC (Total)

180,094

69,368

Debts

0

125,400

CoH

1,554,483

435,216


IN-09: 2Q Reporting

Sodrel

Hill

2Q Net Raised

462,363

375,954

2Q Spent

169,795

96,065

PAC (Total)

205,303

141,900

Debts

255,427

0

CoH

1,138,747

967,879


IN-08: 2Q Reporting

Hostettler

Ellsworth

2Q Net Raised

168,484

354,910

2Q Spent

29,182

211,900

PAC (Total)

46,550

164,552

Debts

9,000

0

CoH

195,146

676,476


IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

46%

Hill (D)

44%

Undecided

4%

Schansberg

5%


Survey USA / WHAS-TV poll of 538 LVs, conducted 10/31-11/2. MoE +/- 4.3%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Donnelly (D)

50%

Chocola (R)

47%

Undecided

3%


South Bend Tribune / WSBT / Research 2000 poll of 400 LVs, MoE of +/- 5%. Conducted Oct. 30-31.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Donnelly (D)

52%

Chocola (R)

39%

Undecided

6%


Reuters poll of 500 LVs, conducted Oct. 24-29. MoE +/- 4.5 percentage points.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

46%

Hill (D)

47.5%

Undecided

4%


Reuters poll of 500 LVs, conducted Oct. 24-29. MoE +/- 4.5 percentage points.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

45%

Hill (D)

47%

Undecided

8%


Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

43%

Ellsworth (D)

50%

Undecided

7%


Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.



MCP: General Election Matchup

Brizzi (R)

50%

Kennedy (D)

42%

Undecided

8%


Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

43%

Hill (D)

47%

Other/Undecided

5%

Schansberg (L)

5%


Survey USA / WHAS-TV poll of 519 LVs conducted 10/20-22. MoE +/- 4.4%.



MCP: General Election Matchup

Brizzi (R)

51%

Kennedy (D)

35%

Other/Undecided

14%


WTHR / Selzer & Co. Inc. poll of 600 LVs. Conducted 10/16-18, MoE +/- 4%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

45%

Donnelly (D)

50%

Undecided

5%


WSBT and Research 2000; telephone poll of 400 LVs, Oct. 16-17. MoE +/-5%.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

32%

Ellsworth (D)

55%

Undecided

11%


Evansville Courier Press / Indiana State University poll of 626 LVs, conducted 10/5-12. MoE +/- 3.9%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

46%

Donnelly (D)

50%

Undecided

4%


Majority Watch RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics poll, MoE +/- 3.07%; surveyed 989 voters 10/8-10/10.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

46%

Hill (D)

48%

Other/Undecided

6%


WHAS-TV/SurveyUSA poll of 512 LVs, MoE +/- 4.4%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

36%

Donnelly (D)

52%

Undecided

12%


Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) poll; conducted 10/4-5 for the DCCC of 400 LVs; MoE +/- 4.9%



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

44%

Donnelly (D)

45%

Undecided

11%


A Mercury Public Affairs (R) poll; conducted 10/9 for Chocola, surveying 300 LVs; MoE +/- 5.66%



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

39%

Donnelly (D)

49%

Undecided

12%


Reuters/Zogby poll, conducted 9/25-10/2 of 502 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 44%D, 40%R, 16%I/O.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

38%

Hill (D)

46%

Undecided

16%


Reuters/Zogby poll, conducted 9/25-10/2 of 500 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 47%D, 39%R, 14%I/O.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

31.8%

Ellsworth (D)

47.4%

Undecided

16.6%

No Response

4.1%


Indiana State University / Evansville Courier Press poll, of 603 registered voters, conducted Sept. 6-21, MoE +/- 4%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

42%

Donnelly (D)

50%

Undecided

8%


WSBT and Research 2000; telephone poll of 400 LVs, Sept. 15-17. MoE +/-5%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

40%

Donnelly (D)

52%

Undecided

7%

IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

45%

Ellsworth (D)

51%

Undecided

4%

IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

42%

Hill (D)

53%

Undecided

5%


Majority Watch, RT Strategies & Constituent Dynamics. IN-02 data: Sept. 8-10, 1003 respondents; MoE +/- 3.09%. IN-08 data: Sept. 8-10, 1031 respondents; MoE +/- 3.04%. IN-09 data: Sept. 8-10, 1017 respondents; MoE +/- 3.07%.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

40%

Ellsworth (D)

44%

Undecided

16%

IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

40%

Hill (D)

46%

Undecided

14%

MCP: General Election Matchup

Brizzi (R)

42%

Kennedy (D)

43%

Undecided

15%

IN-09: Worth Going to War

Yes

43%

No

46%

Not Sure

11%

IN-08: Worth Going to War

Yes

45%

No

45%

Not Sure

10%

IN-07: Worth Going to War

Yes

30%

No

59%

Not Sure

11%


Research 2000 poll, conducted Sept. 5-8, MoE +/- 5% of 800 LVs for WISH-TV



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

41%

Donnelly (D)

46%

Undecided

13%

IN-02: Chocola as Rep.

Approve

47%

Disapprove

47%

IN-02: Donnelly (D) Favorability

Favorable

43%

Unfavorable

31%

IN-02: Chocola (R) Favorability

Favorable

45%

Unfavorable

44%


Conducted 7/21-23 for the South Bend Tribune and WSBT-TV; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 5%