I have TiVo.

Indiana is a national battleground in 2006, with no fewer than 3 hotly contested Congressional (IN-02, Chocola (R) v. Donnelly (D); IN-08, Hostettler (R) v. Ellsworth (D); IN-09, Sodrel (R) v. Hill (D)) seats, the Indiana House (now 52-48) on the verge of Democratic takeover, a contentious Marion County Prosecuter's race with mayoral implications, as well as a few endangered incumbents in the heavily Republican Indiana Senate (ask Bob Garton).

Indiana On Message primarily functions as a respository of political media: television ads, radio spots, et cetera. If you have DVR and capture any ads or interesting news segments, send them my way. Other tips should be directed to the tip box (anonymity/confidentially ensured).

Self-absorbed bio & resume info is here.


"Kokomo kid's the go-to guy for political junkies"



by Mike Leonard
H-T columnist

It might surprise some people that one of the best and most viewed Internet sites on Indiana politics is run by a 17-year-old high school student from the Kokomo suburbs if they didn't already know the name Ryan Nees.

In February, Nees, then a sophomore at Western High School, sued the city of Kokomo and won after Mayor Matt McKillip refused to turn over a municipal e-mail list that that Nees suspected was also being used for campaign mailings and other nongovernmental purposes.

Newspapers called Nees' dogged pursuit of his complaint a "major legal victory" and "a heroic effort for public access," and USA Today picked up on the story as well.

In August, the Society of Professional Journalists honored Nees and two professional journalists from Salt Lake City with their prestigious Sunshine Awards for "important contributions in the area of open government."

"That was certainly an honor to come from an organization for which I have a great deal of respect," Nees said last week from his Howard County home.

Interested in politics since the fifth grade and politically involved since age 13, the high school junior has been primarily involved with partisan politics and support for the Democratic Party. His indianaonmessage.com Web site attempts to be a nonpartisan site for commentary, poll data, spending and, perhaps most interesting, the viewing of television campaign ads. He has more than 100 ads archived and through various means manages to update his site frequently with the latest salvos from Democrats and Republicans.

"I spend an inordinate amount of time on it," he said with a chuckle. "At least 2-3 hours a day. You have to keep it fresh, so it takes time."

The word on the Web site is getting out, at least to political junkies. "It's a niche market, really," Nees said. "Campaign managers, journalists, lobbyists, lawyers. And fellow political junkies."

The site hit its highest daily peak last Wednesday with 700 views. Nees said he's been averaging 15,000-18,000 hits a month - a surprising total, really, considering that he doesn't advertise, and he manages to operate the site and run his own Web design business while maintaining an A average in his high school classes.

He's not especially outraged by the negative tone taken by Democrats and Republicans in the 2006 campaigns. "I don't see it as particularly worse than 2000 or 2004," he said. "But I certainly think it's dispiriting when there are ads that are clearly misleading and manipulative. Ultimately, though, it's democracy at work, and hopefully, at the end of the day, the truth comes through and people can make good decisions."

In Indiana's hotly contested congressional races, Nees sees Democrat Brad Ellsworth beating incumbent John Hostettler in the 8th District, challenger Joe Donnelly ousting Republican incumbent Chris Chocola in the 2nd, and the 9th District race between Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel and former Rep. Baron Hill as too close to call.

"The interesting dynamic has been how the 2nd District has overtaken the 9th in importance. Joe Donnelly has out-raised Baron Hill, and in the national Democrats' eyes, Donnelly has pushed Hill aside. Polls show him up 12 points on Chocola, and I don't see that happening in the 9th," Nees said.

"All three Republicans could win, too. They have a huge structural advantage. But, still, given all of that, they've only been beating the Democrats by inches, and now there's an intensely sour voter mood toward Republicans in general.

"I can't speak of a time in my lifetime when Democrats have been so well positioned to win," the 17-year-old said. "I love it as a political junkie. It's wonderful to be in such a hotly contested state."

Of course, even with all of his knowledge of the issues and experience in politics, Nees can't vote yet. It doesn't frustrate him all that much.

"I've learned there are more effective ways to make a difference beyond the voting booth," he said.

Does he see elective office in his own future? "I don't know. We'll see," he said. "With how nasty the environment is, I'm inclined to stay behind the scenes and be more of an observer than a participant."

At this point in his high school career, Nees hasn't even decided on what college he'll attend. He took an East Coast trip last summer and visited Yale, Brown and Georgetown. "I'm sure I'll be looking at political science as a major. If I go to a state school, then I'm thinking maybe a double major in political science and journalism. And then, possibly law after that.

"Law, journalism and political science," he added as an afterthought. "The three professions America hates most."

IN-08: 3Q Reporting

Hostettler

Ellsworth

3Q Net Raised

165,252

430,322

3Q Spent

90,894

693,568

PAC (Total)

16,950

144,523

Debts

9,000

0

CoH

269,704

413,464


IN-09: 3Q Reporting

Sodrel

Hill

3Q Net Raised

437,053

364,542

3Q Spent

486,720

405,019/h3>

PAC (Total)

219,048

111,200

Debts

251,927

0

CoH

1,072,320

927,402


IN-02: 3Q Reporting

Chocola

Donnelly

2Q Net Raised

809,010

551,284

2Q Spent

1,361,584

662,852

PAC (Total)

362,900

153,074

Debts

0

125,400

CoH

1,001,909

333,450


IN-02: 2Q Reporting

Chocola

Donnelly

2Q Net Raised

365,863

176,332

2Q Spent

238,236

63,239

PAC (Total)

180,094

69,368

Debts

0

125,400

CoH

1,554,483

435,216


IN-09: 2Q Reporting

Sodrel

Hill

2Q Net Raised

462,363

375,954

2Q Spent

169,795

96,065

PAC (Total)

205,303

141,900

Debts

255,427

0

CoH

1,138,747

967,879


IN-08: 2Q Reporting

Hostettler

Ellsworth

2Q Net Raised

168,484

354,910

2Q Spent

29,182

211,900

PAC (Total)

46,550

164,552

Debts

9,000

0

CoH

195,146

676,476


IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

46%

Hill (D)

44%

Undecided

4%

Schansberg

5%


Survey USA / WHAS-TV poll of 538 LVs, conducted 10/31-11/2. MoE +/- 4.3%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Donnelly (D)

50%

Chocola (R)

47%

Undecided

3%


South Bend Tribune / WSBT / Research 2000 poll of 400 LVs, MoE of +/- 5%. Conducted Oct. 30-31.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Donnelly (D)

52%

Chocola (R)

39%

Undecided

6%


Reuters poll of 500 LVs, conducted Oct. 24-29. MoE +/- 4.5 percentage points.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

46%

Hill (D)

47.5%

Undecided

4%


Reuters poll of 500 LVs, conducted Oct. 24-29. MoE +/- 4.5 percentage points.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

45%

Hill (D)

47%

Undecided

8%


Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

43%

Ellsworth (D)

50%

Undecided

7%


Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.



MCP: General Election Matchup

Brizzi (R)

50%

Kennedy (D)

42%

Undecided

8%


Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

43%

Hill (D)

47%

Other/Undecided

5%

Schansberg (L)

5%


Survey USA / WHAS-TV poll of 519 LVs conducted 10/20-22. MoE +/- 4.4%.



MCP: General Election Matchup

Brizzi (R)

51%

Kennedy (D)

35%

Other/Undecided

14%


WTHR / Selzer & Co. Inc. poll of 600 LVs. Conducted 10/16-18, MoE +/- 4%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

45%

Donnelly (D)

50%

Undecided

5%


WSBT and Research 2000; telephone poll of 400 LVs, Oct. 16-17. MoE +/-5%.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

32%

Ellsworth (D)

55%

Undecided

11%


Evansville Courier Press / Indiana State University poll of 626 LVs, conducted 10/5-12. MoE +/- 3.9%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

46%

Donnelly (D)

50%

Undecided

4%


Majority Watch RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics poll, MoE +/- 3.07%; surveyed 989 voters 10/8-10/10.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

46%

Hill (D)

48%

Other/Undecided

6%


WHAS-TV/SurveyUSA poll of 512 LVs, MoE +/- 4.4%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

36%

Donnelly (D)

52%

Undecided

12%


Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) poll; conducted 10/4-5 for the DCCC of 400 LVs; MoE +/- 4.9%



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

44%

Donnelly (D)

45%

Undecided

11%


A Mercury Public Affairs (R) poll; conducted 10/9 for Chocola, surveying 300 LVs; MoE +/- 5.66%



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

39%

Donnelly (D)

49%

Undecided

12%


Reuters/Zogby poll, conducted 9/25-10/2 of 502 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 44%D, 40%R, 16%I/O.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

38%

Hill (D)

46%

Undecided

16%


Reuters/Zogby poll, conducted 9/25-10/2 of 500 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 47%D, 39%R, 14%I/O.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

31.8%

Ellsworth (D)

47.4%

Undecided

16.6%

No Response

4.1%


Indiana State University / Evansville Courier Press poll, of 603 registered voters, conducted Sept. 6-21, MoE +/- 4%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

42%

Donnelly (D)

50%

Undecided

8%


WSBT and Research 2000; telephone poll of 400 LVs, Sept. 15-17. MoE +/-5%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

40%

Donnelly (D)

52%

Undecided

7%

IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

45%

Ellsworth (D)

51%

Undecided

4%

IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

42%

Hill (D)

53%

Undecided

5%


Majority Watch, RT Strategies & Constituent Dynamics. IN-02 data: Sept. 8-10, 1003 respondents; MoE +/- 3.09%. IN-08 data: Sept. 8-10, 1031 respondents; MoE +/- 3.04%. IN-09 data: Sept. 8-10, 1017 respondents; MoE +/- 3.07%.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

40%

Ellsworth (D)

44%

Undecided

16%

IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

40%

Hill (D)

46%

Undecided

14%

MCP: General Election Matchup

Brizzi (R)

42%

Kennedy (D)

43%

Undecided

15%

IN-09: Worth Going to War

Yes

43%

No

46%

Not Sure

11%

IN-08: Worth Going to War

Yes

45%

No

45%

Not Sure

10%

IN-07: Worth Going to War

Yes

30%

No

59%

Not Sure

11%


Research 2000 poll, conducted Sept. 5-8, MoE +/- 5% of 800 LVs for WISH-TV



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

41%

Donnelly (D)

46%

Undecided

13%

IN-02: Chocola as Rep.

Approve

47%

Disapprove

47%

IN-02: Donnelly (D) Favorability

Favorable

43%

Unfavorable

31%

IN-02: Chocola (R) Favorability

Favorable

45%

Unfavorable

44%


Conducted 7/21-23 for the South Bend Tribune and WSBT-TV; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 5%